Gallium and germanium after China's export controls: where the Western tonnes come from
Two minerals that no one in your organisation worried about three years ago — and that now block 5G and defence procurement.
By STRATEGIA analyst desk
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- By-product economics make these supplies structurally tight
- Umicore is the strategic Western germanium source
- Recycling is the bridge until 2028+
- Defence and 5G procurement are the most exposed
Why these metals matter suddenly
Gallium goes into 5G base-station chips and radar systems. Germanium goes into fibre-optic preforms, infrared optics, and military thermal imaging. Both are by-products — gallium from bauxite/zinc residues, germanium from zinc and coal fly ash — which means production cannot ramp independently of host-metal output.
The supply structure
Gallium: 94% China, 4% Russia, with small Korean and Japanese output. Germanium: 83% China, with Belgium (Umicore), Russia and Canada (Teck) the only at-scale Western producers. Both subject to Chinese export licensing since August 2023.
What is realistic in 2026
For gallium: Western recyclers extracting from GaAs scrap (5N Plus, Indium Corp). Pilots at zinc smelters in Europe and N. America for primary recovery. For germanium: Umicore Hoboken (BE) remains the strategic Western source — capacity ~40 tpa. Recovery from coal fly ash being piloted in Canada and the US (DPA Title III grants).
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