Rare earths after MOFCOM's export-license expansion: the 2026 supplier reality
The MOFCOM Order 2026/9 has changed the procurement calculus for every EV motor and wind turbine programme on Earth.
By STRATEGIA analyst desk
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- MOFCOM 2026/9 brings finished magnets into the strategic export regime
- Four non-China at-scale routes for light REE; only two ramping for heavy REE
- Allied-nation strategic reserves are buying time, not solving structure
- Premium for non-China material is now a permanent contract feature
What MOFCOM 2026/9 actually does
Until April 2026, Chinese rare-earth export licensing applied to oxides, metals and alloys. The May 2026 MOFCOM Order 2026/9 extended the licensing regime to NdFeB and SmCo finished magnets and motor sub-assemblies. License processing cycles 30–45 days, with no obligation to grant. Western buyers of magnets through Chinese motor suppliers are now exposed.
The four at-scale non-Chinese routes
Lynas (AU) — Mt Weld mine + Kalgoorlie separation + LAMP Malaysia. Operating; heavy rare earth (Dy/Tb) circuit commissioning 2026-Q4. MP Materials (US) — Mountain Pass mine + Fort Worth metal/magnet plant. Operating; NdPr metal commercial 2026. Iluka (AU) — Eneabba refinery, AUS-government-backed. Ramping; first commercial Dy/Tb 2026-Q4. Neo Silmet (EE) — only commercial separation plant in EU. Operating; EU CRMA strategic-project status.
What this means for procurement
For light rare earths (Nd, Pr), there are two qualified at-scale routes (Lynas and MP) plus one EU separator (Neo Silmet) sufficient to cover 2026 demand at a premium. For heavy rare earths (Dy, Tb), there is no qualified at-scale supply outside China today; the Iluka and Lynas heavy circuits ramping in 2026-Q4 will be the only viable routes until 2028. Stockpiling — at allied-nation strategic reserve level (US DPA, JP JOGMEC, KR KORES) — is buying time, not solving the structural issue.
Price implications
Neodymium oxide +12.6% MoM on the May 2026 license expansion. Dysprosium oxide +24.8% MoM, breaching $400/kg for the first time since 2011. Allocation cuts of 15–30% reported by Chinese suppliers to non-Chinese buyers. Premium for non-Chinese material now structural.
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